With regard to the likelihood that the parties will be able to negotiate an agreement, it is probably more likely that they will not, for the simple reason that duty-free trade would be a very valuable price for both parties (and would greatly simplify agreements related to the NI Protocol) and because the agreement of a trade agreement, even if it is “thin”, would create a platform, from the additional agreements in other areas. However, given that the two sides are still far apart on a number of critical issues, the likely time frame for reaching an agreement seems likely to spill over into November, with an “abrupt halt” by the middle of the month, in order to have time to “rub” legally, especially on the European side. for the preparation of translations and for prior checking by the specialised committees of the European Parliament before the last plenary session of the year, which will take place on 14 December. The government is also working to offer new assurances to the Democratic Unionist Party, which strongly opposes May`s deal and is particularly concerned. Last night we heard Boris Johnson call on Conservative MPs not to vote in favour of the bill that will likely be submitted to Parliament later this evening, given that the party`s whip could be withdrawn and revoked as the Conservative Party`s candidate in a future election. The aim of the bill is to postpone Brexit for three months so that further useful negotiations can take place with the EU. While it is likely that some of the youngest Conservative MPs will be “recovered”, it is unlikely that Tory “big beasts” such as Philip Hammond, Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve will not be hit – in fact, Philip Hammond said this morning on BBC Radio 4`s Today programme that he was ready for “the fight of a lifetime” if there were attempts to re-elect him as a Conservative candidate in the next general election. This morning, government whipper Mark Spencer, Andrea Leadsom, former Speaker of the House of Commons, who resigned last night, informed the House of Commons that the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill would not be published tomorrow, as had previously been recommended, and said: “We will inform the Assembly of the publication and introduction of the Withdrawal Agreement upon our return from the Pentecost break.” If May`s deal falls in early June, much of the summer is expected to begin with the election of the next Tory leader – who will then have to define his own alternative policy. If the government hopes to hold the vote early this week before the US president arrives, it would be under pressure to release the bill this week, before MPs disappear for a Pentecost break. “. There are only eight weeks left before the end of the transition period during which the UK – Deal or No Deal – will leave the internal market and customs union, marking the beginning of a much more distant relationship with the European Union.
The magnitude of the task of preparing businesses, individuals and the government itself is enormous. An agreement on the future relationship with the EU could less disrupt the transition to these new trade conditions. It could, for example, avoid new tariffs and streamline some of the most important new bureaucracies. However, an agreement would not fundamentally change what the government and the economy need to do to prepare – many of them are identical, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. But this message was not disclosed by the public. .